A slight downturn in the number of new COVID cases in Simcoe-Muskoka over the last week could be a good sign, but the medical officer of health says it’s too early to tell.
Last week (Oct 11 to 17) the health unit reported 93 new cases of COVID-19 in Simcoe County and Muskoka District, which is a decrease from the 110 new cases confirmed between Oct. 4 to 10.
The weekly incidence rate is 15.5 cases per 100,000 people in the region, whereas it was about 22.5 cases per 100,000 the week of Oct. 4-10.
“It’s good news for the moment, but we need to continue all that we’re doing to flatten the curve again,” said Gardner. He noted he will be watching closely to determine if this is a downward trend.
Of the 288 cases reported by the health unit in October, 68 cases have been related to an outbreak at Simcoe Manor long-term care home. There have also been 125 cases associated with close contact and another 61 cases deemed community-acquired, meaning an investigation yielded no known epidemiological link.
“There continue to be some family gatherings,” said Gardner. “There was one on Thanksgiving with some travel involved. So people, to some degree, are not abiding by my [and the province’s] recommendations they stick to their household for close contact.”
The doctor also noted some households are large and fairly crowded.
“That is a risk factor in and of itself,” said Gardner. “It’s not as if they’re doing anything contrary to our advice.”
The health unit has tracked family cluster cases, some of which involve children.
All those identified as cases or as high-risk contacts of cases are told to isolate for 14 days, and that’s with or without a COVID test.
The median age for those testing positive for COVID-19 in the region between July and October (considered the second wave) is about 36 years old. For the first wave, the median age was 48 years old.
“This wave was led by younger people,” said Gardner. “But we’re seeing older people now, too.”
There is also evidence people who are ‘working age’ are exposing their colleagues after contracting the virus from home or in the community. (The health unit offers this example of such spread.)
Gardner said workplace controls are important for preventing transmission.
There are currently two manufacturing facilities and an agricultural processing plant in the region in outbreak with several staff members contracting the coronavirus.
Another factor in the second wave of cases has been school-related cases. So far, the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit has tracked 30 individual cases connected with 27 different schools plus their close contacts. There is no evidence of transmission at schools, but some classrooms have been closed because of high-risk exposure to the individual case.
“We have a lot we’ve got to learn if we’re to reduce the likelihood or reduce the possibility of a future wave,” said Gardner.
With Christmas and other winter holidays on the way, the tradition of gathering might be in jeopardy.
“I think we need to be prepared for the long haul,” said Gardner. “If it turns out that we’ve flattened the curve for Christmas, that would be a good thing … but if it continues as it is now, we’d be continuing to recommend you stick to your household only.”
As always, the doctor urged frequent handwashing, wearing a face-covering indoors, avoiding gatherings, limiting close contact to members of your household only, and self-monitoring for any symptoms and isolating if they develop.
